A blue wave in November? One forecast now puts the Senate at 50-50

A man holds a “Black Votes Matter” sign. Photo by Edmond Dantès/Pexels

(ABNN) - As Election Day draws closer, and despite various efforts by Republicans to tip the scales in their favor, Decision Desk HQ’s latest forecast is raising that question. It shows control of the Senate in play after Republicans had previously held the advantage.

In a post on X, Decision Desk HQ said its forecast now considers Senate control a toss-up for the first time since June, giving Democrats and Republicans an equal 50% probability of winning the chamber.

“The average seat outcome across 1 million simulations remains a 50-50 tie, which would be a narrow win for Republicans thanks to Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote,” Decision Desk HQ posted.

Decision Desk HQ lists five Senate contests as toss-ups: Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Maine. Its percentages represent each candidate’s forecast probability of winning, not projected vote totals or polling percentages.

In Alaska, the forecast gives Democrat Mary Peltola a 58% probability of defeating Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, who has a 42% probability.

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico has a 53% probability of defeating Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, who stands at 47%.

In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek in the forecast, 59% to 41%.

In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown has a 54% probability of defeating Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who stands at 46%.

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson has a 53% probability of defeating Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who has a 47% probability.

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